Multi-hazard early warning systems in agriculture and food systems

There are several systems and tools that can support farmers, fisherfolk, and decision-makers in anticipating and planning for hazards induced by climate change, including the following – many of which increasingly rely on artificial intelligence to analyse past events, detect patterns, and improve the accuracy and timeliness of threat identification and response:

• Agricultural risk mapping and warning systems: Tools that provide decision-makers, including farmers and fisherfolk, with free, reliable, accessible weather and climate information to help them identify and understand the climate change risks they face, including droughts, floods, sea-level rise, wave surges, harmful algal blooms, pests, and diseases, and identify adaptation options.
• In fisheries, implement fishery-dependent or -independent data-gathering systems (monitoring) that can track changes in the geographic range of species and potentially provide advanced warning of changes in fish distributions and species composition.
• Early warning for market price fluctuations due to extreme weather should be a concrete measure to protect food systems. By anticipating climate-driven price shocks, MHEWS enable farmers, traders, and distributors to take timely action, such as adjusting harvest, storage, or transport, reducing losses, stabilizing markets, and enhancing food security.
• Establish weather warning systems, including early warning systems for extreme events to inform timely and appropriate responses by farmers and fishers to minimize negative impacts of extreme environmental conditions, e.g. by supporting decisions on fishing practices, such as postponing trips or changing locations.
• Food security monitoring systems: Strengthen and sustain existing systems that track food availability, stability, access, and utilization, ensuring consistent funding, improved data quality, and better use of nutrition-related indicators to support early warning systems for food security to ensure timely decisions by policymakers and food system actors.
• Global monitoring for food security: Where available, include earth observation data and ethically applied AI to enhance information services for food aid and food security decision-makers, supporting more accurate and timely agricultural production monitoring and early response.
• Regional technical guidelines on early warning systems for human, animal and plant health: Strengthen surveillance and risk analysis to monitor and manage health threats across sectors, including early warnings for disease outbreaks triggered by specific weather conditions, such as fungal infections in crops, aquatic animal diseases, and climate-induced vector-borne diseases like malaria or dengue. Addressing these risks early is critical for protecting food and nutrition security, as illness can reduce nutrient absorption, increase nutritional needs, and limit the body’s ability to recover.
• Digital technology to track fishing vessels: This can help to disseminate weather warnings, enhancing safety and preparedness among fishing communities. It also includes training programs to build community capacity in disaster risk reduction.
• Integrating climate- and biodiversity-loss-related risks to global food trade, and related ‘chokepoints’, into MHEWS can enable timely responses, such as rerouting trade, adjusting sourcing strategies, or activating food reserves, to minimize disruptions and protect food security.
• Real-time anomaly detection: Develop automated systems for detecting anomalies in food supply chains to assist food authorities and inspectors in identifying food security risks quickly.
• Integrated food safety management platforms: Use platforms that consolidate functionalities like incident reporting, corrective actions, data analytics, and mobile accessibility for proactive food safety management.

Strong governance policies that build institutional capacity are necessary to enable the adoption and application of MHEWS:

• National planning process: Establish a national all-hazards committee on technical warning systems in the agriculture and food systems, linked to national disaster management and reduction authorities, including the national platform for disaster risk reduction. Align national efforts with global frameworks including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 – 2030, particularly ‘Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction’, to enhance credibility, funding, and technical support, and thereby accelerate national progress.
• Hazard and vulnerability mapping: Enact legislation or government policies mandating the preparation of hazard and vulnerability maps for all communities, and assign responsibility for coordinating hazard identification, vulnerability, and risk assessment to one national organization.
• Regional coordination for shared hazards: Establish regional agreements, coordination mechanisms, and specialized centres for addressing regional concerns such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts in shared basins, data exchange, and technical capacity building.
• Establishment of Inter-departmental and sectoral collaboration: Establishment of stronger inter-departmental and sectoral collaboration among hydro-meteorological institutions, national disaster risk management offices, and other institutions, especially those related to non-hydrometeorological hazards, to break down silos and foster collaboration.
• Development of policy and institutional frameworks: Development of strong legal, policy and institutional frameworks to support the effective implementation of MHEWS, hazard forecast, and warning dissemination, creating an enabling environment through simple and well-understood legislation, policy, and institutional frameworks within national disaster risk management strategies.
• Incorporate early warning systems into national development plans: Integrate early warning systems into broader national development strategies to ensure they are aligned with disaster risk reduction and resilience goals, while establishing governance structures at the local level to ensure community engagement and effective bottom-up feedback loops.
• Allocate sufficient funding and resources: Ensure adequate financial and human resources are allocated to the development, maintenance, and improvement of early warning systems. This may involve seeking international support and investment.
• Promote international cooperation and knowledge sharing: Engage in global initiatives and platforms, such as the Early Warnings for All initiative, to share best practices, access technical assistance, and leverage international expertise.
• Training for local communities to use early warning systems and involve community members including farmers and farmer organisations in co-developing the system: This can ensure the accessibility and user-friendliness of the system. Adapting alert language and tailoring communication to vulnerable groups improves last-mile accessibility and ensures early warnings translate into action.
• Incorporation of biodiversity into relevant national policies and legislation: Create policies and legal frameworks that support the establishment and operation of multi-hazard early warning systems, with specific provisions for biodiversity conservation, e.g. regarding environmental flow, wildfire prevention.

Key guides to support the success and enhance the adoption of MHEWS include:

Tools

Guides

Promoting broader adoption of MHEWS can contribute significantly to achieving the objectives outlined in the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF), and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Climate change mitigation benefits

While MHEWS can play a key role in reducing the impacts of climate change, they can also help reduce disaster- and reconstruction-related greenhouse gas emissions by enabling rapid identification of environmental hazards, allowing governments, communities and other actors to take steps to minimize damage to infrastructure.

Climate change adaptation benefits

MHEWS can directly contribute to the following targets under the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience:

• Target 9a (Water & Sanitation): Early warnings for water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and contamination events enable timely interventions to protect water resources, ensure climate-resilient water supply and sanitation, and maintain access to safe potable water.
• Target 9b (Food & Agriculture): MHEWS help anticipate and reduce the impacts of droughts, floods, and extreme weather on food production and supply chains, supporting climate-resilient food systems and lowering food insecurity risks. With just 24 hours’ notice, MHEWS can cut damage by up to 30%, minimizing financial losses in agriculture.
• Target 9c (Health): Early warnings for heatwaves, disease outbreaks, air pollution, and other climate-related health risks allow health systems to prepare and respond, reducing climate-related illness and death, especially among vulnerable populations, thereby contributing to maintaining or improving their health and nutritional outcomes.
• Target 9d (Ecosystems): MHEWS support ecosystem resilience by providing advance notice of climate hazards like wildfires, storms, and floods that threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services, enabling proactive management, restoration, and conservation efforts.
• Target 9e (Infrastructure): MHEWS protect infrastructure and human settlements by forecasting hazards such as storms, floods, and extreme heat, allowing for preventive measures to ensure continuity of essential services and minimize damage.
• Target 9f (Livelihoods): MHEWS warn of hazards that threaten agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and trade, protecting livelihoods and supporting adaptive social protection, especially in vulnerable rural areas. By improving early warnings for floods, landslides, avalanches, and other climate-related disasters, these systems enhance community resilience and can deliver up to a tenfold return on investment by safeguarding lives and jobs during extreme weather events.
• Target 9g (Cultural Heritage): Early warnings can protect cultural heritage sites and practices from climate-related risks such as flooding, erosion or storms by enabling timely adaptive strategies for preservation and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Biodiversity benefits

Policies aiming at the establishment of MHEWS can facilitate progress on several KM-GBF targets, including:

• Target 1 (Plan and Manage all Areas To Reduce Biodiversity Loss): Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) are closely connected to land use planning and management by providing crucial risk and hazard information that informs where and how development should occur to reduce disaster impacts. By assessing the risk for the occurrence of events such as droughts, floods, earthquakes, storms, and wildfires, and by receiving early warnings when these events occur, landscape and seascape planners and managers can implement strategies to also mitigate impacts on ecosystems of high biodiversity importance, thereby reducing habitat loss and degradation, besides reducing the risk of fatalities and damage to infrastructure.
• Target 8 (Minimize the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Build Resilience): Integrating the monitoring, forecasting, and dissemination of risk information across various climate-related hazards can enable timely and effective responses that protect vulnerable ecosystems and species from the cascading effects of climate-driven hazards. These policies – directly or indirectly – promote the safeguarding of natural ecosystems by strengthen local and national capacities through coordinated preparedness, cross-sectoral action, and risk-informed decision-making, ensuring that timely interventions reduce damage and facilitate recovery in the face of climate extremes.
• Target 20 (Strengthen Capacity-Building, Technology Transfer, and Scientific and Technical Cooperation for Biodiversity): The establishment of early warning systems provides opportunities for strengthening scientific and technical cooperation through South‑South, North-South and triangular cooperation, and improving capacity-building for the monitoring and sustainable management of natural ecosystems. Moreover, MHEWS can incorporate and benefit from traditional ecological knowledge and practices. Indigenous and local communities often have valuable insights into early warning signs of natural disasters based on their long-standing observations of their environment. Integrating this knowledge into MHEWS requires co-design and participatory processes, ultimately enhancing both the systems’ effectiveness and the social-economic co-benefits that these can deliver.
• Target 21 (Ensure That Knowledge Is Available and Accessible To Guide Biodiversity Action): MHEWS can play a crucial role in ensuring that knowledge is available and accessible to guide biodiversity action. These systems generate and disseminate critical data on various hazards that can impact areas of high conservation value. By providing timely and accurate information, MHEWS enable policymakers, communities, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions and take appropriate actions to protect critical habitats.

Other sustainable development benefits

MHEWS can also contribute to the progress of the following SDGs, in particular:

• SDG 1 (No Poverty): MHEWS help reduce the exposure and vulnerability of low-income groups especially farming communities to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social, and environmental shocks and disasters. By providing timely warnings, MHEWS can prevent loss of life and reduce economic impacts, thus helping to protect vulnerable populations from falling into poverty due to disasters.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): MHEWS contribute to food and nutrition security by providing critical information to farmers, fisherfolk and food producers about impending hazards that could affect crops, blue foods and livestock. This allows for preventive measures to be taken, contributing to maintaining the stability of functional food systems, protecting food sources and agricultural livelihoods.
• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being): By providing advance warning of hazards, MHEWS enable communities and health systems to prepare for and respond to potential health emergencies, reducing mortality and morbidity associated with disasters. Early warnings can trigger timely evacuations and other protective measures directly saving lives and promoting better health outcomes.
• SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): MHEWS play a crucial role in managing water-related risks by providing early warnings for floods, droughts, and other water-related hazards. This information helps in safeguarding water resources and sanitation infrastructure, ensuring more sustainable water management and reducing the risk of water-borne diseases during disasters.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): MHEWS are a key component of climate change adaptation strategies, helping communities and nations build resilience to climate-related hazards.

The effectiveness of MHEWS interventions and projects relies on sound design and implementation, which can be constrained by a range of technical and non-technical challenges, such as:

• Changes in public spending patterns (e.g. due to pandemics or sudden increase in military expenditures), uncertainty in accessing international finance and in sustaining funding for project outcomes.
• Limited involvement of local communities in multi-hazard early warning systems leads to ineffective risk communication, reduced trust, and poor response, as warnings may not reach or be understood by those most at risk. Moreover, risk communication alone does not ensure adequate responses; the development of clear, actionable response options and their effective communication are essential separate steps to enable timely and appropriate community action. The “last mile” challenge persists, particularly in the delivery of actionable climate information to local communities. Moreover, the lack of transparency, misinformation, understanding of sociocultural norms, and limited trust in the system by end users is a barrier to the effectiveness and uptake of climate information and MHEWS.
• Early warning systems often lack gender inclusivity, even though men and women process, interpret, and respond to signals differently.
• The benefits of technology, as well as R&D efforts, are underutilized in developing quality long-term historical hazards and exposure/vulnerability/loss and damage data sets for risk mapping. In many developing countries insurance systems and financial services do not systematically leverage modern technologies for disaster risk assessments.
• Limited technical capacity to effectively create and interpret climate risk data, especially when approaches are too technical for farmers and fishers, limits the coverage and uptake of climate information and disaster risk knowledge.
• The lack of coordination and harmonization among international cooperation efforts hampers effectiveness of MHEWS. Projects funded by different donors are often insufficiently aligned, resulting in fragmented components that cannot be seamlessly integrated into a single, cohesive early warning system.
• Lack of sufficient regulatory framework, policies, incentives, and coherent legislative frameworks leads to fragmented efforts and ineffective policy uptake for advancing climate information and MHEWS.
• Limited coordination and data sharing between government/non-government entities and national/local levels, and integration of fragmented interventions lowers the effectiveness of support to developing countries. Barriers can include limited accessibility, inconsistent quality, and difficulties in obtaining and maintaining data, often compounded by underfunding, including via official development assistance (ODA). Additionally, a lack of user-oriented climate information services means there is a gap between raw data and actionable insights, hindering practical application.
• Design and implementation of an EWS typically take 1 to 5 years and there are increased public concerns about the length of the project timeline, as well as maintenance of the systems and retention of capacities built.
• There is limited knowledge and use of quantification methods to assess disaster risk impact, and cost-benefit analysis needed to justify the establishment of MHEWS for climate impacts.

Incorporating the following measures into the comprehensive and holistic design of MHEWS interventions can help minimize trade-offs and overcome implementation challenges:

• Consistent domestic investment can be used to train technicians, conduct research, and risk assessments, and support technology transfer activities. Various forms of international cooperation, including mobilization of support from international donors, climate funds, multilateral development banks (MDBs), and specialized mechanisms could help leverage additional financial support.
• Improving awareness and equitable public participation by:
  • adopting community-based approaches, participatory and co-production approaches that meaningfully involve local community leaders, farmers, academia, research centres, decision-makers, and vulnerable groups and fostering private sector engagement.
  • promoting a transparent approach to building public trust, integrating indigenous knowledge, developing or translating tailored communication strategies and knowledge products with and for end-users, and improving systems to increase knowledge transfer and adaptive capacity.
  • complementing complex assessments with accessible, practical solutions like simple weather forecasts and targeted education campaigns that meet community needs.
  • ensuring the involvement of women in planning processes, budget formulation and program design, leading to action plans which ensure gender-inclusive outcomes.
• Improving data quality for risk knowledge and information through technology implementation by:
  • using international satellite data to address local data gaps;
  • integrating diverse sources of information to develop high-quality assessments and analytics, including risk mapping and scenario planning, and
  • tailoring information for different communities to facilitate meaningful action.
• Implementing publicly-funded research and development initiatives and training programs by local and international experts/institutions.
• Strengthening national policies and appropriate legal and regulatory frameworks to foster an enabling environment for implementation and scale-up of Climate Information Services (CIS), which can help provide actionable user-oriented services and products, and MHEWS in the agriculture and food sector.
• Establishing cross-sectoral working groups to facilitate coordination among institutions and establishing a central coordinating agency such as the Meteorological Services to manage climate data. Modern warning system technology can be combined with existing infrastructure, to address the sustainability and ease of maintenance, particularly in low-resource settings. This should be supported by institutional arrangements that empower local authorities to issue warnings in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.
• Adopting a programmatic approach to streamline the process for facilitating linkages and readiness support for improving climate information and MHEWS through climate technologies.
• Quantifying the effectiveness of MHEWS, for example, through evidence-backed estimations of existing or avoided loss and damage is an effective way to garner political buy-in and support for their implementation.

Effective monitoring of MHEWS requires reliable tools, well-defined indicators, and integrated frameworks to track implementation progress and assess outcomes, including those related to biodiversity and climate action.

Indicators to monitor biodiversity outcomes

The Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity agreed to a comprehensive set of headline, component, and complementary indicators for tracking progress toward the targets of the KM-GBF. Some of these indicators could also be functional for monitoring the implementation of this policy option, including:

Tools to monitor biodiversity outcomes

Tools to monitor climate outcomes

The UN’s Executive Action Plan for the Early Warnings for All initiative calls for initial new targeted investments of $3.1 billion between 2023 and 2027. However, the implementation costs of MHEWS vary widely depending on the scale and complexity of the system, and are shaped by countries’ specific needs, capacities, and risk landscape. These costs typically include equipment, infrastructure development, ongoing maintenance, personnel expenses, and social integration. Some specific estimates are provided below:

• Estimates range from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person for installing monitoring sensors in landslide-prone areas.
• For larger-scale systems, such as the South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System (SEE-MHEWS-A), the estimated direct cost for establishing an operational system is approximately CHF 21 million.
• A World Bank-funded project that implemented a Pastoral Risk Early Warning and Response System and Drought Disaster Risk Management program in in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia cost US$20.98 million.
• A cost-benefit analysis of a participatory climate information and weather forecasts system for smallholder farmers in Zambia, based on existing data from other sub-Saharan African countries, particularly northern Ghana, estimated that a national level rollout would already become economically beneficial after one year with returns increasing in the future. Each USD invested in the project was estimated to generate between 3.6 and 3.8 USD in benefits.

Notable examples of successful MHEWS implementation from around the world include:

• Uzbekistan has been enhancing its MHEWS through the Enhancing Multi-Hazard Early Warning System to Increase Resilience of Uzbekistan communities to Climate Change-induced hazards program. The system focuses on floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches, and hydrological drought in the eastern mountainous regions of Ferghana Valley. This project aims to transform the current early warning system from reactive to proactive, improving the efficiency of collecting and generating weather and climate information. By developing impact-based risk knowledge products, Uzbekistan’s MHEWS enables warning dissemination and forecast-based actions in targeted areas, potentially benefiting both climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation efforts.
• Ethiopia has implemented MHEWS to address climate-related hazards, particularly drought and flooding. The system is designed to cope with Ethiopia’s diverse climate zones, ranging from alpine cool zones to hot tropical and arid regions. Ethiopia’s MHEWS aims to protect approximately 250,000 people annually from floods and mitigate the impacts of drought, which affects an average of 1.5 million people each year.
• Lao PDR has implemented community-based early warning systems using loudspeakers and SMS alerts. Additionally, a Mobile Alert Messaging Pilot Project provides warnings to the population. These systems help Lao PDR address multiple hazards, including floods, droughts, and other climate-related risks, which can impact both communities and ecosystems.
• The EW4All (Early Warnings for All) initiative is a global effort spearheaded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), and other partners, including FAO, to ensure universal access to multi-hazard early warning systems by 2027. The initiative aims to address gaps in early warning coverage, particularly in vulnerable communities, by integrating climate information into disaster preparedness and response systems. It emphasizes tailored solutions for sectors like agriculture, fisheries, and food supply chains, which are heavily impacted by climate-induced hazards.
• The SWALIM (Somalia Water and Land Information Management) project, led by FAO, aims to enhance early warning systems for agriculture and water management in Somalia. By integrating meteorological and hydrological data through monitoring stations, SWALIM provides real-time forecasts and warnings tailored to farmers and fishing communities. Key components include the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS), which predicts river flooding and disseminates alerts via SMS, radio, and community leaders, helping reduce loss of life and property. The project also supports capacity building through training programs, enabling communities to interpret early warnings and adopt disaster preparedness measures.
• The PASP (Post-Harvest and Agribusiness Support Project) in Rwanda, supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), focuses on integrating climate-smart practices into agriculture to enhance resilience against climate-induced hazards such as droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall. Farmers receive tailored weather updates and forecasts via SMS, enabling them to make informed decisions about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and storage. These updates are localized to ensure relevance to specific regions and farming practices. The system also includes seasonal forecasts and early warnings for extreme weather events such as heavy rains or prolonged dry spells.
• Guatemala has developed a fully integrated Early Warning System for Food Security and Nutrition that brings together three key components: the Ministry of Health’s Nutrition Surveillance System, the Ministry of Agriculture’s Crop Monitoring System, and the Food and Nutrition Security Forecast led by the Department of Food Security and Nutrition. These systems are coordinated and consolidated into the National Food Security and Nutrition Information System, which enables timely detection of risks or threats related to nutritional crises. This integrated system supports targeted responses, such as food assistance, at national, regional, municipal, and community levels. It is the only system of its kind in Central America, offering regular multisectoral reports and real-time updates, including situation rooms tracking malnutrition in children under five.

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